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The writer is deputy head of the Middle East and north Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations
本文作者是欧洲对外关系委员会中东和北非项目副主任
President Donald Trump has rolled the dice with his strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Before he is dragged into a never-ending war on Israel’s terms, he must now do something even more radical: strike a deal on terms that Tehran can accept.
唐纳德•特朗普总统对伊朗核设施的打击是冒险的。在他被拖入以色列条件下无休止的战争之前，他现在必须做一些更激进的事情：以德黑兰可以接受的条件达成协议。
The US hit three facilities inside Iran, including the notorious Fordow site. This is a big psychological blow for Tehran, and will trigger a counter escalation. Iran launched a heavy missile bombardment inside Israel and is also likely to retaliate directly against the US. How Iran hits back depends on several factors. First, it will take stock of its remaining nuclear capabilities. While huge attention has been focused on Fordow, it has distracted from the fact that international inspectors no longer have full visibility over where Iran’s large quantity of highly enriched uranium — the key ingredient for making a bomb — is being stored, and how much of it is left. The threat of reconstituting its nuclear programme gives it some leverage if negotiations with the US resume.
美国袭击了伊朗境内的三处设施，包括臭名昭著的福尔多设施。这对德黑兰是一个巨大的心理打击，并将引发反击升级。伊朗对以色列境内发动了猛烈的导弹轰炸，也有可能直接对美国进行报复。伊朗如何反击取决于几个因素。首先，伊朗将评估其剩余的核能力。虽然人们对福尔道的关注度很高，但却忽略了一个事实，即国际核查人员已无法完全了解伊朗大量高浓缩铀--制造核弹的关键原料--储存在何处，以及还剩多少。如果恢复与美国的谈判，伊朗以重建核计划相威胁，这给了伊朗一些筹码。
Second, Iran will carefully assess the messaging — particularly via back channels — around the US strikes. If Washington has relayed to Tehran that these strikes are intended to be a one-off and Trump’s administration is open to serious dealmaking, Iran is likely to calibrate its counter strikes in ways that doesn’t burn diplomatic bridges.
其次，伊朗将仔细评估围绕美国打击行动所发出的信息，尤其是通过后方渠道发出的信息。如果华盛顿向德黑兰转达了这些打击是一次性的，而且特朗普政府愿意认真地达成协议，那么伊朗很可能会以不破坏外交桥梁的方式来调整其反击行动。
Finally, what Iran’s leaders do next will depend on how they believe Israel can best be deterred in the future. Iran wants to ensure it does not become another Lebanon, where Israel is violating the November ceasefire on a regular basis. But its options are now limited. The deterrence equation has fundamentally changed in the past year. Tehran once relied on being a nuclear threshold state, loyal armed groups on Israel’s borders, and its missile capacity to stop Israel from directly attacking Iran. All have now been compromised.
最后，伊朗领导人的下一步行动将取决于他们认为未来如何才能最好地威慑以色列。伊朗希望确保自己不会成为另一个黎巴嫩，在那里以色列经常违反11月的停火协议。但伊朗现在的选择有限。威慑等式在过去一年发生了根本性变化。德黑兰曾经依靠核门槛国家、以色列边境上忠实的武装组织以及导弹能力来阻止以色列直接攻击伊朗。现在，所有这些都已受到损害。
Washington and Tehran were engaged in talks aimed at reaching a new nuclear deal until just before Israel’s attack on June 13. The great irony of recent events is that although Trump claims he seeks to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat, he has made it far more likely that Iran eventually becomes a nuclear state. Iran is at war with both Israel and the US, with little prospect of sanctions relief. The country’s leaders could now be willing to endure the pain associated with completing the weaponisation process.
直到6月13日以色列发动袭击之前，华盛顿和德黑兰一直在进行旨在达成新核协议的会谈。近期事件的最大讽刺在于，尽管特朗普声称他寻求消除伊朗的核威胁，但他却使伊朗最终成为核国家的可能性大大增加。伊朗与以色列和美国都处于交战状态，制裁几乎没有缓解的前景。伊朗领导人现在可能愿意忍受与完成武器化进程相关的痛苦。
Trump’s decision could result in a broader regional war. While Iran certainly cannot win the military fight, it hopes to ensure that only losers emerge from it. There is still a narrow diplomatic window to avert a quagmire. Washington remains vocal about its preference for a negotiated deal, and a diplomatic “off-ramp” that ends the war is Iran’s best option.
特朗普的决定可能导致更广泛的地区战争。虽然伊朗肯定无法在军事斗争中获胜，但它希望确保在这场战争中只有失败者。目前仍有一个狭窄的外交窗口来避免陷入泥潭。华盛顿仍然表示希望通过谈判达成一项协议，而结束战争的外交“匝道”是伊朗的最佳选择。
Iran should surprise the world by taking a radical gamble of its own: offering to meet US vice-president JD Vance in exchange for the US halting Israeli strikes during talks. In conjunction, it might announce its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to signal strength to its own public while avoiding more drastic escalation such as closing the Strait of Hormuz or attacking US bases. During the three-month waiting period for withdrawal Iran should improve access to inspectors, which will be central to any future nuclear deal.
伊朗应该采取一场激进的赌博，让世界大吃一惊：主动提出与美国副总统万斯会面，以换取美国在谈判期间停止以色列的袭击。与此同时，伊朗或许可以宣布退出《核不扩散条约》，向本国公众展现其强势，同时避免更剧烈的升级，例如封锁霍尔木兹海峡或袭击美国军事基地。在为期三个月的退出等待期内，伊朗应该改善核查人员的准入，这对于任何未来的核协议都至关重要。
For this to work, Trump must shift away from the maximalist demands that opened the door to war, including imposing zero enrichment. And Iran will need to show more flexibility — perhaps accepting a pause in enriching uranium or eventually doing so as part of a regional nuclear consortium. Taking a radical diplomatic path offers Tehran a face-saving route to halt the conflict and engage directly with the US — the only country that can deliver what Iran needs. It also offers Trump the only way to deliver peace through strength while keeping the US out of an endless war.
为了实现这一目标，特朗普必须摆脱为战争敞开大门的最高要求，包括实施零浓缩。伊朗将需要表现出更大的灵活性——也许接受暂停铀浓缩，或者最终作为地区核联盟的一部分这样做。采取激进的外交途径为德黑兰提供了一条挽回面子的路线，以停止冲突并直接与美国接触——美国是唯一能够满足伊朗需求的国家。它还为特朗普提供了通过实力实现和平的唯一途径，同时使美国摆脱无休止的战争。