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Microsoft, by chief executive Satya Nadella’s own description, is “thriving”. Its quarterly profits soared by almost 25 per cent and its market valuation hit $4tn last week. In any normal situation, it would seem incongruent that the company is at the same time slashing its workforce by the thousands.
正如首席执行官萨蒂亚•纳德拉(Satya Nadella)所言，微软(Microsoft)目前“蓬勃发展”。其季度利润飙升近25%，市值上周达到4万亿美元。在正常情况下，这家公司不会同时大规模裁员数千人。
The pursuit of a leaner workforce is not new. In times of economic uncertainty, companies prune excesses — cutting headcount and eliminating inefficiencies. But today it is not just about doing more with fewer people. Companies are preparing for a time where there might be less work for their employees altogether.
追求精简员工队伍并不是新鲜事。在经济不确定时期，公司会削减冗余——裁员并消除低效。但如今，这不仅仅是用更少的人做更多的事。各公司正在为员工整体工作量可能减少的时代做准备。
Even as business leaders claim AI is “redesigning” jobs rather than cutting them, the headlines tell another story. It is not just Microsoft but Intel and BT that are among a host of major companies announcing thousands of lay-offs explicitly linked to AI. Previously when job cuts were announced, there was a sense that these were regrettable choices. Now executives consider them a sign of progress. Companies are pursuing greater profits with fewer people.
尽管企业高管声称，人工智能正在“重新设计”工作岗位，而不是削减岗位，但新闻头条讲述的却是另一番故事。不仅仅是微软，英特尔(Intel)和英国电信(BT)等众多大型公司也宣布了与人工智能直接相关的数千人裁员。以往宣布裁员时，人们还会觉得这是不得已的选择，而现在高管们却将其视为进步的标志。各公司正以更少的人力追求更高的利润。
For the tech industry, revenue per employee has become a prized performance metric. Y Combinator start-ups brag about building companies with skeleton teams. A website called the “Tiny Teams Hall of Fame” lists companies bringing in tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue with just a handful of employees.
在科技行业，每位员工营收已成为备受推崇的业绩指标。Y Combinator初创公司常常以精简团队打造企业为傲。一个名为“微型团队名人堂”(Tiny Teams Hall of Fame)的网站列出那些仅凭少量员工就能创造数千万甚至上亿美元营收的公司。
OpenAI’s Sam Altman has gone further, predicting the eventual rise of a one-person $1bn company. That may still sound far-fetched — but it is undeniable large language models are already reshaping white-collar work. While new jobs are being created in the AI age and some workers redeployed, a lot of positions will be eliminated. Companies are increasingly saying the tasks of those workers no longer exist.
OpenAI的萨姆•奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)更进一步，预测未来将会出现由一个人运营的10亿美元公司。这听起来或许仍然遥不可及，但不可否认的是，大型语言模型已经在重塑白领工作。虽然人工智能时代会创造出新的岗位，也有部分员工被重新分配，但许多职位将会被淘汰。公司越来越多地表示，这些员工的工作内容已经不复存在。
Already it’s clear the hiring of coders has dropped off a cliff. And almost daily, my inbox delivers examples of AI’s prowess versus humans. Among the latest is how one Big Four firm has slashed turnaround times for research by 75 per cent, reclaiming 3,600 analyst hours by using AI-generated reports.
现在已经很明显，程序员的招聘量大幅下滑。我的收件箱几乎每天都会收到人工智能与人类能力对比的案例。一个最新例子是，某家四大会计师事务所通过使用AI生成的报告，将研究周期缩短了75%，节省了3600个分析师工时。
Younger workers should be particularly concerned about this trend. Entire rungs on the career ladder are taking a hit, undermining traditional job pathways. This is not only about AI of course. Offshoring, post-Covid budget discipline, and years of underwhelming growth have made entry-level hiring an easy thing to cut. But AI is adding to pressures.
年轻员工尤其应该关注这一趋势。职业阶梯上的整个层级都受到了冲击，传统的职业发展路径正在被削弱。当然，这不仅仅是人工智能的问题。外包、后疫情时期的预算紧缩，以及多年来经济增长乏力，都让初级岗位的招聘变成最容易被削减的部分。而人工智能则进一步加剧了这种压力。
Dirk Hahn, chief executive of recruiter Hays, said to me: “While there will be exceptions, the rise of AI could constrain the recovery in some junior white-collar roles.” If the footholds are eroding, where does that leave future workers? What shape do organisations take if there are fewer starter jobs and middle management positions? Professional development and leadership pipelines need to be redefined.
瀚纳仕(Hays)首席执行官迪尔克•哈恩(Dirk Hahn)对我说：“虽然会有例外，但人工智能的兴起可能会限制某些初级白领岗位的复苏。”如果这些立足点正在被侵蚀，未来的职场人将何去何从？如果入门岗位和中层管理职位减少，组织将会呈现怎样的形态？职业发展和领导力培养体系亟需重新定义。
The consequences are cultural as well as economic. If jobs aren’t readily available, will a university degree retain its value? Careers already are increasingly “squiggly” and not linear. The rise of freelancing and hiring of contractors has already fragmented the nature of work in many cases. AI will only propel this.
这种影响不仅体现在经济层面，也涉及文化层面。如果工作岗位不再充足，大学学位还有价值吗？职业发展本就越来越“曲折”，而非线性。自由职业和雇佣合同工的兴起，已经在许多情况下让工作的性质变得更加碎片化。人工智能只会加速这一趋势。
But are leaner organisations necessarily better ones? I am not convinced these companies are more resilient even if they perform better financially. Faster decision making and lower overheads are great, but does this mean fewer resources for R&D, legal functions or compliance? What about a company’s ability to withstand shocks — from supply chain disruptions to employee turnover and dare I say it, runaway robots?
但更精简的公司就一定更好吗？我并不认为这些公司即使在财务表现上更好，也一定更具韧性。决策更快、管理成本更低固然不错，但这是否意味着研发、法务或合规等方面的资源会减少？公司应对冲击的能力又如何——比如供应链中断、员工流失，甚至可以说，机器人失控？
Some companies such as Klarna have reversed tack, realising that firing hundreds of staff and relying on AI resulted in a poorer customer service experience. Now the payments company wants them back.
一些公司，比如Klarna，已经改变了做法，意识到裁员数百人并依赖人工智能会导致客户服务体验变差。现在，这家支付公司希望这些员工能够回归。
The tech bros touting people-light companies underestimate the complexity of business operations and corporate cultures that are built on very human relationships and interactions. In fact, while AI can indeed handle the tedium, there should be a new premium on the human — from creativity and emotional intelligence to complex judgment. But that can only happen if we invest in those who bring those qualities and teach the next generation of workers — and right now, the door is closing on many of them.
那些鼓吹“轻人力”公司的科技大佬们，低估了企业运营的复杂性，以及建立在极具人情味的人际关系和互动之上的企业文化。事实上，虽然人工智能确实可以处理繁琐事务，但人类的价值——从创造力、情商到复杂判断力——反而会变得更加珍贵。但这只有在我们投资于具备这些素质的人才，并培养下一代员工的前提下才能实现——而现在，许多人正逐渐被排除在外。
anjli.raval@ft.com