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Donald Trump’s efforts to get the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are relentless. The US president has already goaded and threatened the Fed chair Jay Powell. This month he nominated his ally, Stephen Miran, to a vacant board slot. On Monday night, he took a more forceful approach. With unproven allegations of mortgage fraud hovering over governor Lisa Cook, Trump saw an opening, and fired her “effective immediately”, citing his powers to remove her “for cause”. Cook claims “no cause exists under the law” to justify her sacking. A court battle is set to ensue.
唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)为推动美联储降息可谓锲而不舍。这位美国总统已经多次刺激并威胁美联储主席杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)。本月他又提名自己的盟友斯蒂芬•米兰(Stephen Miran)填补一个空缺的理事职位。周一晚间，他采取了更为强硬的手段。在美联储理事丽莎•库克(Lisa Cook)面临未经证实的抵押欺诈指控之际，特朗普看到了机会，援引其“有正当理由”罢免的权力，宣布将她解职，“立即生效”。库克则称，“法律上并不存在任何正当理由”证明解雇她合法。一场法庭之战在所难免。
Whatever the outcome, the assumption that the Fed will set rates based on its own economic judgments has been dealt a severe blow by Trump’s determination to undermine it. The president has recently called for policy rates to go down to 1 per cent, well below their current perch at 4.25 to 4.5 per cent. He may think this will buoy voters and reduce government borrowing costs. But by undermining the central bank’s credibility he risks making the economic situation worse.
无论结果如何，因特朗普决意要削弱美联储，关于美联储将依据自身经济判断设定利率的假设已遭重创。总统近日要求将政策利率降至1%，远低于当前4.25%至4.5%的高位。他或许认为这会提振选民并降低政府举债成本，但通过削弱央行公信力，他可能令经济形势变得更糟。
The president’s move against Cook — the first Black woman to serve on the Fed’s board of governors — is unprecedented. Even if she is found guilty of falsifying mortgage statements it is unclear if the courts will deem that sufficient for her to be fired. But, if they did, it could erase any notion that the Fed is independent. Cook has been in support of keeping rates on hold in order to parse the price-raising effects of Trump’s tariff policies. The president could replace her with another pliant governor, and use his insiders to undermine other rate-setters.
总统对库克——首位进入美联储理事会的黑人女性——采取的举措前所未有。即便她被判定伪造抵押贷款声明，也并不清楚法院是否会认为这一点足以构成她被解雇的理由。但如果真如此，可能会抹去美联储独立性的任何概念。库克一直支持按兵不动，以便分析特朗普关税政策对物价上行的影响。总统可以用另一位顺从他的理事取而代之，并利用他们内部人来削弱其他利率制定者。
With more dovish policymakers in place, rates could fall faster than necessary, raising inflation pressures. At Jackson Hole last week, Powell already opened the door to rate cuts as early as September. But with mounting evidence in recent weeks that import duties are raising domestic price pressures, a rate cut is not set in stone. That may, in part, explain Trump’s drastic actions on Monday.
随着更多鸽派决策者上位，利率可能会比需要降得更快，从而加大通胀压力。上周在杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)，鲍威尔已为最早在9月降息打开大门。但鉴于近几周越来越多的证据显示进口关税正在推高国内物价压力，降息并非已经被确定下来，不会再改变。这或许部分可以解释特朗普周一的激进行动。
Either way, in the interim, investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a captured Fed. Following Trump’s announcement on Cook, 30-year bond yields — which have remained uncomfortably elevated in the president’s second term — nudged higher. The dollar weakened further too. These market moves are ultimately counter-productive for the president. Higher long-term bond yields push up mortgage rates and public borrowing costs. A weak dollar adds to imported price pressures. If households and businesses expect the president will relentlessly undermine the Fed to get rates down, their inflation expectations may increase. That raises the chances of tariff-related price increases becoming entrenched.
无论如何，在此期间，投资者正越来越多地将“美联储被俘”的发展前景计入价格。在特朗普宣布解职库克后，30年期国债收益率——在总统的第二个任期内一直处于令人不安的高位——小幅走高。美元也进一步走弱。这些市场走势最终对总统产生了相反结果。长期债券收益率上涨会推高按揭利率和公共借贷成本。疲软的美元会加剧进口价格压力。如果家庭和企业预期总统会不遗余力地削弱美联储以压低利率，他们的通胀预期可能上升。这会增加关税相关的价格上涨固化的可能性。
That said, some analysts are concerned that investors aren’t taking Trump’s cumulative threats on the Fed’s independence seriously enough. Although bond yields jumped on Tuesday, they eased back somewhat over the course of the day. It is true that the president’s efforts to exert his influence on the Fed still faces hurdles. Cook’s removal and replacement faces legal wranglings. With 12 individuals on the central bank’s rate-setting committee, there are indeed other further checks and balances.
不过，一些分析人士担心，投资者并未足够重视特朗普对美联储独立性的持续威胁。尽管周二债券收益率一度跳升，但当天又有所回落。确实，总统对美联储施加影响的努力仍面临重重障碍。库克的撤换将面临法律纷争。由于央行利率制定委员会共有12名成员，确实还存在其他进一步的制衡。
But investors also have shown signs of being lulled into a false sense of security. The Fed’s independence has been dramatically weakened under Trump’s second term, and the direction of travel under his presidency is clear. The move against Cook shows that his administration will leave no stone unturned in its attempts to cut the cost of credit.
但投资者也显露出被麻痹在虚假安全感中的迹象。在特朗普的第二个任期，美联储的独立性已被显著削弱，而其执政下的走向已十分清晰。对库克采取的行动表明，他的政府将不遗余力地尝试降低信贷成本。
Trump should remember that he was elected, in part, on a wave of public loathing for inflation — precisely what he risks letting loose with tighter control of the Fed. Ultimately, more severe market ructions might be what is needed to force Trump to pull back from causing greater damage to the central bank and the US economy at large.
特朗普应该记得，他之所以当选，部分原因是公众普遍对通胀的厌恶——而他若加强对美联储的控制，恰恰可能放任通胀抬头。归根结底，可能需要更剧烈的市场动荡才能迫使特朗普收手，停止对美联储和整个美国经济造成更大伤害。