{"text":[[{"start":5.75,"text":"If your head is spinning after OpenAI’s recent flurry of megadeals, you’re not alone. Hundreds of billions of dollars are at stake — some of it promises future investment from Nvidia, some capital spending on data centres where construction has yet to start and some payments under a giant cloud computing contract with Oracle."}],[{"start":27.85,"text":"Look past the details of this spate of announcements, though, and there’s one overriding message: OpenAI is massively upping the ante. Weeks after the biggest tech companies increased their own capital spending plans, the company that started the generative AI gold rush wants everyone to know that it has put the first pieces in place for the biggest bet of all."}],[{"start":53.35,"text":"It all looks like a calculated display of self-confidence. OpenAI wants customers, employees and partners across the tech industry to know that it is still leading the charge to superintelligence. That is particularly important at a time when it is involved in a messy overhaul of its corporate structure, and as the once clear technology lead it had in large language models erodes."}],[{"start":78.95,"text":"This has also served as the opening salvo for what promises to be an epic assault on the financial markets, as OpenAI and its partners try to line up the financing for their giant bets. Among the questions yet to be answered: who will be on the hook for the data centres built in the hope that AI demand will continue to boom, and where will the cash flow come from to support the mountains of debt that are sure to be involved?"}],[{"start":107.89,"text":"A back-of-the-envelope tally suggests OpenAI has reached broad agreements that will cover capital spending of about $1tn, some it undertaken by partners in the Stargate project it announced in the Oval Office earlier this year. This includes a deal for Nvidia to invest up to $100bn of equity, supporting data centre spending that could top $500bn, as well as the announcement of five new data centres built by Stargate partners SoftBank and Oracle that might cost another $400bn."}],[{"start":145.87,"text":"“Back of the envelope” is the operative term here, and it’s far from clear how much of this capacity will ever be built. While the five data centres are projected to be completed over the next three years, the Nvidia deal is open-ended."}],[{"start":162.9,"text":"There are also plenty of practical challenges to building and powering such a huge expansion in data centre capacity. Oracle, which is taking on the lion’s share of the development under the Stargate project, is a relative minnow in this world and is already carrying significant debt."}],[{"start":183.48000000000002,"text":"Not surprisingly, the many open questions have helped to feed suspicions that the AI market is entering a new and more bubbly phase. How likely is it that OpenAI’s business will support the $300bn in cloud payments it is due to pay Oracle by 2030, or that Nvidia will see the $350-400bn in new chip sales that analysts project from its OpenAI deal?"}],[{"start":212.03000000000003,"text":"In deciding how much to price in to current valuations, the market has seemed somewhat schizophrenic. OpenAI’s deal with Oracle sent the software company’s shares into the stratosphere, despite the many open questions. But the initial stock price gains this week for Nvidia — which, regardless of the timing of the data centre builds, at least secured an important commitment from OpenAI to remain a key customer — quickly dissipated."}],[{"start":241.97000000000003,"text":"OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says his company will lay out its detailed financing plan later this year, while Wall Street analysts are hoping that Oracle will reveal its own financial blueprint at a company event next month. Showing OpenAI and Oracle have serious backers in the wings would go a long way to convincing the markets about their plans."}],[{"start":267.31,"text":"Nvidia’s commitment of up to $100bn in new equity is critical for OpenAI as it looks to outspend a group of giant tech rivals with powerful balance sheets. But the first $10bn slug of this isn’t due until the first data centre is deployed, something that isn’t expected until the second half of 2026, with the rest only pencilled in for future projects."}],[{"start":295.5,"text":"Ultimately, it will take significant — and sustained — revenue growth from OpenAI to support this whole endeavour. The big jump in capacity from Stargate data centres won’t come online until later this decade. Before then, the company that sparked the AI boom needs to show not only that demand for data centre capacity is continuing to outpace supply, but that customers are willing to pay serious money for its services."}],[{"start":332.93,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftmailbox.cn/album/a_1758858417_6874.mp3"}