{"text":[[{"start":7.8,"text":"Sea temperatures around the world were the second highest on record for the month of April, stoking concerns among scientists that an El Niño warming cycle is brewing that would intensify extreme weather."}],[{"start":21,"text":"The naturally occurring El Niño weather phenomenon, where water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer, temporarily accelerates the rise in global air temperature, resulting in the spread of fires, floods and droughts."}],[{"start":37.3,"text":"The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported record sea-surface temperatures across much of the tropical Pacific in April, while the global average for non-polar oceans reached 21C — just shy of the 21.04C record set in April 2024 during the last El Niño event."}],[{"start":59.25,"text":"Copernicus said this year’s April sea temperatures reflected the transition to “El Niño conditions now expected in the coming months”. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":67.7,"text":"Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts behind the Copernicus data, said there was a “clear signal of sustained global warmth”."}],[{"start":79.45,"text":"The planet shifts between a cooling La Niña and the opposing warming El Niño cycles, with neutral conditions in between, typically oscillating every two to seven years. The last El Niño event combined with climate change resulted in the three years to 2025 being the hottest on record.  "}],[{"start":97.55000000000001,"text":"The World Meteorological Organization said in March that El Niño had a better than even chance of returning by the end of this year, while in April the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration put the odds of an El Niño returning between May and July at 61 per cent."}],[{"start":115.50000000000001,"text":"At the end of April, the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia said all climate models, including its own, suggested continued ocean warming over the coming month, reaching El Niño thresholds later this year. "}],[{"start":129.3,"text":"But it cautioned that there was a variation between forecasting models on when the cycle might develop and how strong it would be. "}],[{"start":137.10000000000002,"text":"The WMO echoed the uncertainty about predictions, noting they were typically less reliable around this time of year because of a “spring predictability barrier” in the northern hemisphere."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":149.45000000000002,"text":"Michael Meredith, an oceanographer at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, said there “seems to be lots of heat building up in the equatorial Pacific, with large marine heatwaves and risk of ecosystem damage”, even ahead of a potential El Niño. "}],[{"start":164.9,"text":"“We know that El Niños in general amplify temperatures, so if the impending one is as severe as feared, then we’re in for one hell of a ride,” he said."}],[{"start":173.95000000000002,"text":"“The climate system is complex and predictions are not promises — but I think the coming months and into 2027 are very likely to include a succession of grim environmental stories.”"}],[{"start":185.55,"text":"While there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, the combination can lead to more extreme weather conditions and rainfall patterns. "}],[{"start":195.8,"text":"The global average surface air temperature in April made it the joint third-warmest, at 14.89C, or 0.52C above the 1991—2020 average for the month. The warmest April on record was in 2024 and the second warmest was in 2025."}],[{"start":216.70000000000002,"text":"The data masks underlying sharp regional contrasts in temperature and precipitation, Copernicus said."}],[{"start":224.10000000000002,"text":"In Europe, Spain reported its warmest April on record, while colder than average conditions were seen in eastern European countries. "}],[{"start":232.50000000000003,"text":"It was wetter than average in the northeastern and central US, Canada and northern Mexico, as well as the Arabian Peninsula and Afghanistan, southern China, Japan, parts of Brazil, southern Africa and New Zealand."}],[{"start":245.85000000000002,"text":"In contrast, drier conditions prevailed in the southeastern US, Central Asia, Australia and parts of South America. Arctic sea ice extent was the second-lowest on record for the month."}],[{"start":258.20000000000005,"text":"These were “all hallmarks of a climate increasingly shaped by extremes”, Burgess said."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":270.9000000000001,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1778237532_8707.mp3"}