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If physicians make the worst patients, Dr Copper is suffering. Said to offer a prognosis on the world’s economic health, copper’s price has dropped more than a third since early March. The red metal’s vital role in the impending energy transition seems to have lost its urgency. A good long-term prognosis does not prevent further falls in the short term.
如果医生是最糟糕的病人，那么“铜医生”就是最惨的那位。据说可以对全球经济健康状况做出预测的铜价，自3月初以来已下跌逾三分之一。这种红色金属在即将到来的能源转型中扮演的重要角色似乎已经失去了紧迫性。良好的长期预言，并不能阻止短期内的进一步下跌。
Copper’s long-term positives are legion. For one, supply dwindles each year as the percentage of copper in mined ores diminishes, raising costs. Economies shifting away from fossil fuels also require more copper. Wiring electric cars and buses — hybrid and full battery — will require 1.2mn tonnes of copper in 2025. That is more than double the amount needed last year, says the International Copper Association. World consumption is about 24mn tonnes.
铜的长期利好因素很多。首先，随着铜在开采的矿石中的比例减少，供应量每年都在减少，从而提高了成本。摆脱化石燃料的经济也需要更多的铜。为电动汽车和公共汽车布线--混合动力和全电池--在2025年将需要120万吨铜。国际铜业协会表示，这比去年需要的数量多了一倍。世界消费量约为2,400万吨。
But the long term matters little to those losing money in copper miners now. London-listed Chilean copper miner Antofagasta trades on an enterprise value to ebitda multiple of just four times. That is at decade lows, never mind that the underlying commodity sits at only the midpoint of its own 10-year range.
但长期来看，对那些目前在铜矿行业亏损的人来说，影响不大。在伦敦上市的智利铜矿商Antofagasta，其企业价值与ebitda之比仅为4倍。这是10年来的低点，尽管大宗商品价格仅处于其10年波动区间的中点。
The price of copper has fallen near the long-term economic price of roughly $3 per pound, around which the traded value fluctuates. Six years ago, notes Tom Price at Liberum, analysts would have pointed to that price as providing an incentive to production. Back then, China’s economy also had slowed sharply and its property market looked in serious trouble. Copper touched $2 and rebounded. See that as a worst-case scenario.
铜的价格已经跌至长期经济价格（大约每磅3美元）附近，交易价值在这个价格附近波动。Liberum的汤姆•普莱斯(Tom Price)指出，六年前，分析师们会认为这一价格为生产提供了动力。当时，中国的经济也急剧放缓，其房地产市场看起来有严重问题。铜触及2美元并反弹。那被看作是最坏的情况。
Even so, that suggests copper has further to fall this year. It may explain the growing net short positions of copper traders as reported by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That net sell position has been larger in recent history, but not by much more. Keep monitoring the patient’s vital signs. Copper’s sell-off has not finished.
即便如此，这也表明今年铜价还会进一步下跌。这或许可以解释美国商品期货交易委员会报告中铜交易商净空头头寸不断增长的原因。在最近的历史中，这种净抛售头寸要大得多，但也不会多太多。持续监测病人的生命体征。铜的抛售还没有结束。