Twenty-twenty-five was the year global trade definitely did not die. But it changed in complex ways, some temporary (such as the frontloading of US imports in response to the threat of high tariffs), some likely to be permanent (such as the decline in direct trade between the US and China) and some in between (such as the boom in AI-related trade). Nevertheless, global trade in goods, the products targeted by the tariffs, has been strikingly robust, according to Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade: 2026 update, a preliminary evaluation of 2025 by the McKinsey Global Institute.
全球贸易没死在2025这一年，但是发生了错综复杂的变化。有些变化是暂时的（比如面对高关税的威胁，美国出现抢先进口现象），有些变化可能是永久的（比如美中之间的直接贸易下降），还有些变化介于两者之间（比如AI相关贸易的兴旺）。尽管如此，根据麦肯锡全球研究院(McKinsey Global Institute)对2025年贸易形势的初步评估报告，《地缘政治与全球贸易格局：2026年更新版》(Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade: 2026 update)，在商品领域，即新关税所针对的产品，全球贸易可谓异常强劲。
The report notes five noteworthy facets of what happened in 2025.
该报告指出了2025年发生的五点值得注意的情况。
First, US and Chinese exports reached new highs, while world trade also grew faster than the world economy. The direction of trade shifted substantially, but more from what McKinsey labels “geopolitically distant” trading partners — notably the US and China — than from “geographically distant” ones. Similarly, the EU lost market share in Chinese markets. But India stood out for a large increase in the geographical distance of trade because shipments of smartphones to the US rose fast. (See charts).
首先，美国和中国的出口都达到了新的高点，而世界贸易的增长也快于世界经济。贸易的方向发生了显著转变，但更多是与“地缘政治上疏远”的贸易伙伴——尤其是美国和中国——而不是与“地理上遥远”的贸易伙伴减少贸易。同样，欧盟在中国市场丢失了一些份额。但印度在地理遥远的贸易上出现引人注目的大幅增长，这是由于对美国的智能手机出口迅猛增长。（见图）