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The market for new listings reheated somewhat in 2024, but has yet to fully crisp up. China’s WH Group hopes it can help: by relisting US pork producer Smithfield Foods. WH ought to keep its expectations lean.
2024年，新上市市场有所回暖，但尚未完全活跃。中国的万洲国际(WH Group)希望通过重新上市美国猪肉生产商史密斯菲尔德食品(Smithfield Foods)来助力。万洲国际应保持谨慎的期望。
WH, the world’s biggest pork purveyor, took Virginia-based Smithfield private in 2013. At the time, its $34 a share cash offer valued Smithfield’s equity at $4.7bn and represented a hefty 31 per cent premium over the prior day closing price. Now it is looking to sell up to 20 per cent of the company, and return it to US investors’ portfolios.
全球最大的猪肉供应商万洲国际于2013年将总部位于弗吉尼亚的史密斯菲尔德私有化。当时，其每股34美元的现金报价使史密斯菲尔德的股权估值达到47亿美元，相较于前一日的收盘价溢价高达31%。现在，万洲国际计划出售公司最多20%的股份，并将其重新纳入美国投资者的投资组合中。
Back then, paying top dollars for America’s biggest pork processor might have been justified by expectations that China’s growing middle class — tired of repeated food safety scandals — would stump up for safer American meat products.
当时，为美国最大的猪肉加工商支付高价可能是合理的，因为人们期望中国不断壮大的中产阶级——厌倦了频繁的食品安全丑闻——会愿意为更安全的美国肉类产品买单。
But that narrative didn’t quite pan out. Exports to China took a hit after President Donald Trump’s trade war during his first term prompted Beijing to retaliate with a 25 per cent tariff on all US pork products. A second Trump administration could further inflame this. The Chinese economy’s post-Covid slowdown has emerged as an additional challenge.
但这种说法并未完全实现。在唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)总统第一任期内发动的贸易战后，对中国的出口受到了打击，北京方面以对所有美国猪肉产品征收25%的关税进行报复。特朗普的第二届政府可能会进一步加剧这一局面。中国经济在疫情后的放缓成为了另一个挑战。
Culturally, Chinese consumers prefer to buy fresh — rather than frozen — pork, giving an edge to domestic producers. Packaged pork products — like the American-style bacon and lunch meats that make up a big chunk of Smithfield’s sales in the US — never quite took off in China.
从文化上讲，中国消费者更喜欢购买新鲜猪肉，而不是冷冻猪肉，这使得国内生产商具有优势。包装猪肉产品，如在美国占史密斯菲尔德销售很大份额的美式培根和午餐肉，在中国从未真正流行起来。
With little apparent overlap between the two companies, small wonder WH is looking to relist Smithfield in the US again.
由于这两家公司之间几乎没有明显的重叠，难怪万洲国际希望再次在美国重新上市史密斯菲尔德。
Yet the Smithfield being taken public is geographically smaller than when WH bought it over a decade ago. WH carved out the company’s European operations in August and kept it as one of its subsidiaries. The Smithfield on offer is made up of just the US and Mexico businesses. And performance has been lumpy.
然而，史密斯菲尔德被公开上市时，其地理规模比万洲国际十多年前收购时要小。万洲国际在8月份剥离了公司的欧洲业务，并将其保留为子公司。此次出售的史密斯菲尔德仅包括美国和墨西哥的业务。而且其业绩表现一直不稳定。
Smithfield’s packaged meat division is much more profitable than it was in 2014 — its operating margin has more than doubled to 15 per cent in the first nine months of 2024. Yet the similarly sized fresh pork business has a margin of just 3 per cent. Its hog farming division has struggled with high feed prices and oversupply.
史密斯菲尔德的包装肉类部门比2014年盈利得多——在2024年前九个月，其营业利润率翻了一倍多，达到15%。然而，规模相似的新鲜猪肉业务利润率仅为3%。其养猪部门由于饲料价格高企和供应过剩而举步维艰。
Lower grain costs will help improve the bottom line for 2024. Even so, a pure play on American and Mexican appetite for pork is a tough sell — especially one that will remain controlled by its Chinese parent. Shares in rival meat packers and producers such as Hormel Foods and Tyson Foods have underperformed the wider market. Brazilian meat giant JBS’s plans for a US listing have suffered repeated delays.
较低的谷物成本将有助于改善2024年的盈利状况。即便如此，单靠美国和墨西哥对猪肉的需求仍然难以吸引投资者，尤其是那些仍由中国母公司控制的公司。荷美尔食品公司(Hormel Foods)和泰森食品公司(Tyson Foods)等竞争对手的肉类包装商和生产商的股价表现均低于大盘。巴西肉类巨头JBS在美国上市的计划一再推迟。
In a market that has gone wild for artificial intelligence and speculative technologies, Smithfield is at least serving a familiar business model that customers and investors can get their teeth into. Its valuation will just need to reflect that reheated bacon isn’t to everyone’s taste.
在一个对人工智能和投机技术狂热的市场中，史密斯菲尔德至少提供了一种客户和投资者都能深入了解的熟悉商业模式。其估值只需反映出重新加热的培根并不符合所有人的口味。