{"text":[[{"start":7.78,"text":"The writers are former commissioners of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics"}],[{"start":13.81,"text":"President Donald Trump’s dismissal of Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer is a disastrous “cure” for an imagined problem. It severely damages the credibility of the BLS and all federal statistical agencies, and sets a dangerous precedent for political interference in the vital business of measuring economic activity. As a result, public trust in federal statistics will falter, leading to economic uncertainty and slower US investment and growth."}],[{"start":50.150000000000006,"text":"Trump bases his firing of McEntarfer on the claim that she orchestrated a year-long effort for BLS to fudge job numbers to damage him politically."}],[{"start":60.940000000000005,"text":"The president’s claim refers first to an August 2024 announcement that the bureau expected to reduce total employment estimates by 800,000 jobs. Trump sees this revision as proof that the BLS had been artificially boosting job numbers to help his opponents during the presidential campaign. "}],[{"start":81.58000000000001,"text":"The truth, of course, is much simpler. Every year, the BLS “benchmarks” its monthly payroll survey estimates against a full administrative count of all US jobs from the previous March. This comparison often reveals the need for an adjustment, because the monthly statistics are, by definition, estimates. Revisions of this size — the final one was just under 600,000 — are not uncommon in an economy with 163mn jobs."}],[{"start":116.92000000000002,"text":"The second part of Trump’s case points to a mild job growth of 73,000 in July and the “loss” of 258,000 jobs from downward revisions to the May and June estimates. He asserts that the BLS fabricated these numbers to counter his claims of unprecedented prosperity and job growth. "}],[{"start":139.57000000000002,"text":"In reality, the downward revisions were a result of the BLS collecting more survey responses. The bureau allows companies to submit responses for two months more after the initial deadline. The late submissions for May and June revealed a sharp slowdown in state and local education hiring as Covid-era federal subsidies expired. The “slow” July number, meanwhile, reflected weakness across almost all economic sectors except retail trade and healthcare."}],[{"start":173.40000000000003,"text":"While the president’s claims of bias are baseless, they are still doing significant harm. When official economic statistics are labelled as “fake news”, it undermines the BLS’s credibility and suggests that federal data is manipulated by “swamp animals” in Washington. This damage has far-reaching implications."}],[{"start":197.93000000000004,"text":"There is no private sector substitute for federal statistics. Unlike private data, federal statistics are privacy-protected, aggregated to answer the most relevant questions for decision makers, constructed transparently and widely available without a subscription. The private sector simply cannot provide this kind of statistical infrastructure."}],[{"start":222.33000000000004,"text":"Without the strong foundation of federal statistics, we would lack nationally consistent, transparent and trustworthy data about people and the economy. Furthermore, most private data providers actually rely on public statistics for their own internal analytics."}],[{"start":243.12000000000003,"text":"If the public loses trust in the BLS’s ability to produce objective data, they will instead rely on lower-quality sources, which will lead to worse decisions and more uncertainty. What is more, the president’s “cure” — replacing the commissioner and embedding partisans in the BLS — threatens to further erode trust and damage operations in several ways:"}],[{"start":271.41,"text":"First, nobody taking the job of BLS commissioner under these circumstances, accompanied by other political appointees, will be viewed as independent. "}],[{"start":282.85,"text":"Second, response rates may fall as people and businesses do not bother to participate in surveys that feed into untrustworthy statistics. "}],[{"start":293.90000000000003,"text":"Third, leaders and staff who fear being fired for political reasons may succumb to pressure to adjust methodologies or reveal pre-release information. "}],[{"start":304.95000000000005,"text":"Fourth, methodologies might change abruptly without testing or announcements."}],[{"start":310.75000000000006,"text":"Finally, the BLS will probably lose expertise as hiring and promotion decisions prioritise passivity or political loyalty. "}],[{"start":320.6000000000001,"text":"Other countries have followed this path before, with devastating consequences. Greece and Argentina are two notable recent examples of what happens when economic statistics are politically manipulated. Both countries paid a high economic and social price."}],[{"start":341.18000000000006,"text":"Trump has committed a grave error by launching this unwarranted attack on the credibility and quality of our federal statistics. His actions endanger the US economy and threaten its global role."}],[{"start":361.69000000000005,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftmailbox.cn/album/a_1754536748_4522.mp3"}